tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9818962.post112019893401974706..comments2024-03-20T13:10:11.477+05:30Comments on nanopolitan: Terrorists and milk supply, Markets and monsoon forecastsAbihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06790560045313883673noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9818962.post-1120388787894138832005-07-03T16:36:00.000+05:302005-07-03T16:36:00.000+05:30thanx for the linksthanx for the linksAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9818962.post-1120381019668447382005-07-03T14:26:00.000+05:302005-07-03T14:26:00.000+05:30Hi, I think the only take-home message from the FT...Hi, I think the only take-home message from the FT story is that rural prosperity is not a necessary precondition for industrial growth. The main reason, of course, is that agriculture's share of India's GDP is down to between 20 and 25 %. The second reason, which is specific to the past four years or so, is the fact that our exports are growing faster than our economy. There probably are other factors as well (for example, an ever increasing availability of rural credit is mentioned in the FT report); unfortunately, I have not been able to get the NCAER study itself.<BR/><BR/>Though the FT story has gone behind the paywall, here is a <A HREF="http://in.news.yahoo.com/050621/43/5z1u4.html" REL="nofollow">Yahoo! report</A> on the NCAER study and its implications. An earlier <A HREF="http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/06/03/news/india.php" REL="nofollow">Herald Tribune report</A> presents a more realistic view of the role of monsoons in Indian economy.<BR/><BR/>(Abheek Barua has <A HREF="http://us.rediff.com/money/2005/jun/27guest.htm" REL="nofollow">written recently</A> in the Business Standard about why there is a growing disconnect between the monsoons and the industrial economy.)<BR/><BR/>There is no doubt that failed monsoons will hurt the rural population, with a negative impact on the rest of the economy. The NCAER study only indicates that the other growth-inducing factors have managed to outweigh the negative impact of poor monsoons (in 2002, for example). <BR/><BR/>Will these other factors continue to be favourable to India?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-9818962.post-1120328632582462922005-07-02T23:53:00.000+05:302005-07-02T23:53:00.000+05:30I don't have acess to the ft article but i think t...I don't have acess to the ft article but i think these ncaer guys have got their data screwed up. a .9 to .13 drop in correlation is huge for a 4year gap. i am not convinced. a few red flags are:-<BR/>1)no consideration of regional imbalances in rainfall, which can really skew the data.<BR/>2)efficiency of water usage might have gone up.<BR/>3)monsoons might have replaced/supplanted by tubewells running on free power.<BR/>4)industrial output might have been produced using cheap ex-farm labour. in that case this drop in correlation is a bad thing.<BR/>these are the ones i could up with up. <BR/><BR/>abi,<BR/>can u check the article for the exact varables they are correalting between,i.e industrial output vs rainfall or industrial o/p vs farm prodcution. farm production & rainfall aren't perfect substitutes.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com